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Phil Rocquemore

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So far Phil Rocquemore has created 14 blog entries.

Folding Thresholds in 3-bet Pots: A Closer Look at your Opponents’ Strategy

“If you know the enemy and know yourself you need not fear the results of a hundred battles.”
Sun Tzu, The Art of War

Our primary considerations when choosing a line of play in a poker hand are the particular exploitable tendencies of a given opponent. Both ‘math’ and ‘feel’ players alike will agree that if a player folds ‘too much’ on a given street we can bluff him more often. But exactly how much folding is too much?

Away from the table we can do some valuable analytical work to calculate folding thresholds beyond which a player is vulnerable to exploitative bluffing. In so doing we also discover how our own exploitative lines expose us to being exploited ourselves. Thus the calculation of folding thresholds helps us both to more accurately target imbalances in our opponent’s strategy and to recognize when they are adjusting correctly to our strategy.

3bet pots provide a veritable haven of diverse exploitative lines for the observant player. Given their bloated size relative to single-raised or limped pots they also account for a disproportionate amount of the money per hand which you win/lose at PLO. In this article, we consider the mathematics behind bet/calling, bet/folding and other decisions post-flop in 3-bet pots.

My writing in this post is not meant to be an exhaustive examination of 3bet pots so we shall not go into much detail regarding our opponents’ ranges. The purpose of this analysis is to discover the threshold frequencies at which bet/folding the flop leaves a player open to being exploited. A knowledge of these fundamental frequencies will improve our awareness in 3bet situations at the table.
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By | 2017-04-10T13:22:52+00:00 June 4th, 2015|

The Equity Delusion: How much does chasing cost you?

“The future influences the present just as much as the past.”
Friedrich Nietzsche

Take a look at the picture above and ask yourself, “Why are these men running?”

We can’t be sure, but the chances are that they aren’t running from some rabid beast. In fact they likely aren’t running from anything at all. We can infer this from the fact that not only are these gentlemen wearing inappropriate beast-fleeing attire but that the lead character is looking at his watch. All rather mundane, so why, dear reader, have I bothered bringing this to your attention?

For those of you hoping for a surprise beast-chomps-man denouement complete with a graphic YouTube video this blog post will be something of a disappointment. My readers with a poker-focused disposition will have a lot more fun and should read on.

The point is that these gentlemen are roused to action by anticipatory anxiety: the threat of something bad happening in the future. In this case our heroes are presumably at risk of missing a connection or event. We routinely account for future events in our life decisions yet it seems harder to do in poker. Why? (more…)

By | 2017-04-10T13:22:53+00:00 April 20th, 2015|

Omaha Money Traps: The rundown on overcalling a 3-bet

“Those skilled at making the enemy move do so by creating a situation to which he must conform; they entice him with something he is certain to take, and with lures of ostensible profit they await him in strength.”
Sun Tzu, The Art of War

This article discusses a common spot in which there is no clear consensus on the correct course of action. I have regulars in my database overcalling a 3-bet with as tight a range as 2% and as wide as 10% of their starting hands. For the purpose of this article we are going to focus on the situation where a player opens from UTG/MP with a tight range, faces a 3-bet from an aggressive BT and we are contemplating a cold-flat in the blinds

1. The reason this situation is particularly interesting is because both of our opponent’s ranges are quite well-defined, which makes for some interesting behavior in the relative strength of our pre-flop hands.

A concept that seems to elude many players is that hand strength is fluid pre-flop in PLO.

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Show 1 footnote

  1. We neglect the cold-flat OTB situation because it occurs less frequently. The most common spot, where the BT steals, SB 3-bets wide and BB is contemplating a call is also worthy of investigation.
By | 2017-04-10T13:22:54+00:00 February 24th, 2015|