Playing the Percentages

Folding Thresholds in 3-bet Pots: A Closer Look at your Opponents’ Strategy

Our primary considerations when choosing a line of play in a poker hand are the particular exploitable tendencies of a given opponent. Both ‘math’ and ‘feel’ players alike will agree that if a player folds ‘too much’ on a given street we can bluff him more often. But exactly how much folding is too much?

Away from the table we can do some valuable analytical work to calculate folding thresholds beyond which a player is vulnerable to exploitative bluffing. In so doing we also discover how our own exploitative lines expose us to being exploited ourselves. Thus the calculation of folding […]

By |2017-04-10T13:22:52+00:00June 4th, 2015|

Omaha Money Traps: The rundown on overcalling a 3-bet

This article discusses a common spot in which there is no clear consensus on the correct course of action. I have regulars in my database overcalling a 3-bet with as tight a range as 2% and as wide as 10% of their starting hands. For the purpose of this article we are going to focus on the situation where a player opens from UTG/MP with a tight range, faces a 3-bet from an aggressive BT and we are contemplating a cold-flat in the blinds 1. The reason this situation is particularly interesting is because […]

By |2017-04-10T13:22:54+00:00February 24th, 2015|

Guilty Pleasures: Set-mining in 3bet pots

In the world of poker, three is most certainly not a crowd. Sets are a reinforcing factor in our love of things that come in threes. We never just want a sequel, we want a trilogy; the Romans understood this in their mythology, why would anyone fear a two-headed Cerberus? Not to be outdone the Christians upgraded Judaism by taking the one true God, and making him into Father, Son and Holy Spirit. Even God himself is in on the act, putting 3 quarks in every baryon just for his chosen mammals to find when they smashed tiny things up! With all the […]

By |2017-04-10T13:23:15+00:00October 16th, 2012|
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