Omaha Money Traps: The rundown on overcalling a 3-bet

This article discusses a common spot in which there is no clear consensus on the correct course of action. I have regulars in my database overcalling a 3-bet with as tight a range as 2% and as wide as 10% of their starting hands. For the purpose of this article we are going to focus on the situation where a player opens from UTG/MP with a tight range, faces a 3-bet from an aggressive BT and we are contemplating a cold-flat in the blinds

A concept that seems to elude many players is that hand strength is fluid pre-flop in PLO.

JJT4ss is a top 10% hand against all hands, yet it doesn’t approach the best 10% of hands to continue with once our opponent opens UTG. Similarly, I saw a post recently by a player holding AKKJds, a worthy 3-bet “for value” even against a tight range. This player was now agonizing after facing a 4-bet. The poor soul was still blinded by the ‘strength of his hand’ after the deal rather than focusing his attention on the change in relative range strength. If he had instead reminded himself that now he would rather hold 9874r against his opponent’s Aces than AKKJds, his plight would vanish.

For the purpose of this article we are going to give both the pre-flop raiser and the 3-bettor the same range of the top 10% of hands. There are some complications relating to 4-betting that will be discussed at the end of the post. Before I drop a table in front of you, I want to discuss the strength of some common post-flop hands in this situation:

1) Pair + non-nut FD

Players who love to call double-suited hands are likely to overvalue the strength of {Pair + non-nut FD} on the flop. The problem with this draw is that one of our opponents flops {Nut FD, 2NFD, 3NFD, set} around 64% of the time. Even if they just stack off with this range against our open-shove, we have only 28% equity when called. With an SPR of 2.5 we would require 44% folds, so the 36% is falling short².

2) Pair + OD on high flops

As an entrenched member of the ‘fight fire with fire’ school of poker³ I love to pitch the high rundowns in spots most players consider ‘standard’ continuations. Nevertheless the weakness of QJT8, no FD on a KT6d flop surprised me. It has only 23% equity 3-ways against the given ranges and runs into {High FDs, sets, top two} a jaw-dropping 75% of the time. Many players would no doubt believe this is a ‘good flop’ for their hand and count themselves unlucky when they get snap-called in one or even two spots. Most {Pair +OD} are not sufficient to shove on duochrome {A,K,Q}-high flops.

3) Non-AA overpair + non-nut FD

Similarly the equity of {non-AA overpair + non-NFD} is a miserable 29% when called by a range of {top two+ and NFDs}. Our opponents will only hold these hands around 50% of the time, which makes them close to break-even when we do flop them. Nevertheless, mining for {OP + FD or a set} is a losing play when the equity of half of our ‘hits’ is so low.

Our enthusiasm for cold-flatting the ‘standard’ hands has been suitably curbed, so let’s get to the fun stuff. Those of you who have done coaching/seminars with me are by now well aware that I love to introduce +EV/0EV lines that look crazy wherever possible. The table below is a veritable goldmine for these ‘shark in fish clothing’ plays.

A word of warning, do not attempt to use this table to counter wider ranges, the card removal effect is important both for how often we flop well but also how rarely our mediocre flops are dominated. When we cannot count on both opponents’ ranges being Broadway-oriented we have to take a different approach.

By way of explanation, the table above indicates the 3-way equity of the hand; frequency of {top two+} and how that has changed from the base frequency⁴; frequency of 9+ out wrap; frequency of other likely ‘stack-off’s’; total shoves as a sum of the previous three columns.

Of course, all shoves are not created equal. As referred to above, the QJT combinations aren’t doing well on KTx boards whereas a 765 is delighted on 85x board. Similarly, {overpair+FD} is omitted from the shoves category, although they add some value to the respective hands. Finally, double pairs flop very strong hands when they do hit, although set-over-set becomes an issue on A/K high boards⁵.

F(+25.5)-(1-F)(11) = 0

Solving, we find F = 30%.

There is an additional problem here, however, which is that we don’t get to see the flop every time when we call, at least not for the advertised price.

We are not bothered by the 3-bettor having specifically AA, so much as the PFR having AA and then 4betting us. When we hold a random hand, the PFR will have AA around 22% of the time. Holding KK bumps it up a little to 25%, and either player to 50%! We would need 29% equity to stack-off 3-ways having cold-flat; even AKQJds only has 25% versus {AA, 10%}. This means that we expect to divide hands into 3 categories:

1) Fold pre-flop
2) Call 3-bet, fold to 4-bet
3)Call 3-bet, continue to 4-bet

Since we would be putting up half our stack pre-flop, the third category is quite small.

The second table above demonstrates the consequences of facing a 4-bet from EP and a call/shove from the initial 3-bettor. Unsuprisingly, broadway cards fare very poorly and low connectors very well. Since the percentages seem close together, I’ll show a quick EV calculation to demonstrate the cost of stacking off with 29% equity 3-ways 100BB deep⁷:

0.29*(300.5)-99= -11.9BB

Despite being ‘only 4% short’ you end up dropping 12BB every time this occurs. The more curious among you might want to spend some time considering whether the initial 3-bettor constructing his 3-betting range well will make a 4-bet more or less frequent.

What to fold

Cold-flatting KKxx, as I see so often, is a dismal play. In fact I am reasonably comfortable saying that, if you are only 100BB deep, mediocre KKxx is a 4b/fold hand when faced with a raise and a 3-bet. It’s remarkable that KKQJds is not overwhelmingly strong; this hand will gain from flopping a large number of {OP + FDs}, so I won’t suggest folding it, but the blocker factor of our opponents’ broadway ranges weakens it considerably.

Most A-broadway hands fall into the ‘clear-fold’ category. Similarly, QJT-oriented hands fare pretty poorly. Gone are the days when {QQJT,QJT9ss} are autoflats.

Other woeful hands are those with multiple gaps, especially broadway-oriented. If you are a player who feels a temptation with AKJ5 or the like in this situation, then let that impulse rest. There’s always another hand.

What to call

Three-connectors below a ten are particularly powerful, since they gain from the interference effect of the two broadway-oriented ranges. Even with a pair in hand (or two), 7766ds and 7765ss are comfortable flats. The hilarious lower-connectors are also far more playable now than they would be in a HU single-raised pot. It does appear important that the 4th card is at most 1-gap away, or else the hand is double-suited. Curiously, even A876ds is a powerful hand, a testament to both the potency of a possible nut flush draw and the connectivity of the 876.

This article was originally featured as a subscriber-only post on my legacy site Quadrophobia.com.

QUESTION(S) OF THE WEEK: Check your database and see how often you cold-flat 3-bets. Are there any hand types costing you a lot of money at the moment? Share your flatting frequency and trouble hands in the comments below.