This is a post in an aperiodic series of short articles whose goal is to present some interesting numbers and their immediate implications. These posts are meant to provide a change of pace from our more cogent analyses and are left deliberately open-ended. The reader is encouraged to share any insights that he develops as a result in the comment box below.
Equity and aggression
With even a little experience of Pot-Limit Omaha the thinking player soon realizes that hand equities run close together, even in all-in situations on the flop. However, many aggressive players draw incorrect conclusions from this statistic; these players often prefer to raise and get the money in whenever they connect with the flop, relying on fold equity to compensate for their lack of hand equity once the money goes in. These players will tend to chalk running into a much better hand as a “cooler,” never realizing how substantial a leak they have in the long run.
Nowhere is this more evident than on two-tone flops. Two-tone flops are very deceptive, not least since many hands with a flush draw have 30-40% equity against some very strong hands. Since one of the main ways in which a “winning player,” makes money from other players is by getting it in with an equity advantage, we would do well to consider some common hand match-ups before deciding on our stack-off ranges:
Let us consider the T♦8♠4♦ flop:
|Hand A||Equity A||Equity B||Hand B|
The worst absolute match-up is the naked nut flush draw against top set, with only 30% equity. It would be easy to dismiss running into top set as a “cooler” in this situation. Yet we should consider that the stack-off with QJ64dd at the top of the table has close to 38% equity against top set. This is a hand which only a recreational player would stack off with in a single-raised pot, and yet it still has 38% equity against the strongest made hand possible