This is the first post in an aperiodic series of short articles whose goal is to present some interesting numbers and their immediate implications. These posts are meant to provide a change of pace from our more cogent analyses and are left deliberately open-ended. The reader is encouraged to share any insights that he develops as a result in the comment box below.
1) KQJT is a poor 3bet hand against a tight range
So are QQJT and KKQT; what is the justification for this counter-intuitive claim?
In a vacuum, a player opening with a 15% range has Aces around 17% of the time. When we hold four cards ranked between T and K (let’s call them brodway)
- This is not a typo, I wanted a term for broadway cards excluding the A. ↩
- For reference without the 4 brodway cards this drops to 50% ↩
- An Ace with three non-broadway cards beside it will only run into AA 11% of the time. ↩
- This applies against ranges which you will treat as AA 100BB or shallower. It doesn’t matter if you think he 4-bets wider if in practice you play him post-flop as if he has AA. Many poor 4-bet calls with Kings get justified on this logical disconnection. ↩
- This argument does not imply that 9843 is a better 3-bet than KK97, although it can be in a different context (deliberate teaser for future post). ↩